AGU 2014: Key Events from The Earth Institute

Scientists at Columbia University’s Earth Institute will present important talks at the Dec. 15-19 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world’s largest gathering of earth and space scientists. Here is a journalists’ guide in rough chronological order. Unless otherwise noted, presenters are at our Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Formal abstracts of all presentations are on the AGU meeting program.  Reporters may contact scientists directly, or call press officers: Kevin Krajick, [email protected] 917-361-7766 or Kim Martineau, [email protected] 646-717-0134. 

Will Rapid Global Warming Resume Soon?
Braddock Linsley [email protected]
Global temperatures rose quickly until about 15 years ago, and have since largely plateaued. Now, coral records from the south Pacific Ocean suggest the so-called “hiatus” may soon end. Researchers hypothesize that water in the Pacific has slowed atmospheric warming by storing excess heat generated by CO2 emissions. But when the most recent phase of the 20-some-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation comes to an end, some of this stored heat may end up back in the air. Geochemical analysis of more than 220 years of coral growth rings from the islands of Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga adds new support to projections that the PDO will switch states within 5-10 years, triggering a new phase of rapid warming.
Monday, Dec. 15, 8 a.m.-12:20 p.m.  Moscone South Posters. A11B-3017
Related: Global Heat Hiding Out in the Oceans

Frontiers of Geophysics Lecture: Jeffrey D. Sachs
Jeffrey Sachs, director of The Earth Institute, is an economist, senior United Nations advisor and best-selling author. In this headliner talk, he will speak on “The Earth Sciences in the Age of Sustainable Development.” Among other initiatives, he will discuss the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, a new interdisciplinary effort by scientists from the top 15 carbon-emitting nations to map specific ways each country can reorganize energy systems to limit future warming to 2 degrees C. Journalists wishing to meet with Sachs may contact press officers.
Mon. Dec. 15, 12:30-1:30 p.m., Gateway Ballroom, Moscone South
Sachs’s Earth Institute home page 
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project

Battling Epidemics With Remote Sensing
Andrew Kruczkiewicz [email protected], Pietro Ceccato [email protected] (Intl. Research Institute for Climate and Society)
Remote sensing is playing a key role in showing how shifts in weather drive outbreaks of deadly diseases, and how to counteract them. Kruczkiewicz will discuss how remote sensing has linked outbreaks of leishmaniasis in Sudan and South Sudan to dryer than normal conditions during the transmission months of April-July. Imagery suggests that cracks in dried-up soil—the breeding habitat of leishmaniasis-carrying sandflies—proliferate during these months, leading to outbreaks later. Ceccato will discuss programs of The Earth Institute, City University of New York and NASA to develop practical remote-sensing tools aimed at helping African nations predict and prepare for outbreaks of leishmaniasis, as well as malaria, trypanosomiasis and schistosomiasis.
Mon. Dec. 15, 5:15-5:30 p.m., 3020 Moscone West. H14A-05
Fri. Dec. 19, 11:20-11:35 a.m., 3001 Moscone West. GC52A-05
IRI’s work on climate and health
All IRI talks at AGU

Arsenic: A Mass Poisoning In Progress
Alexander van Geen [email protected]
It could be the largest mass poisoning in history: the 1990s discovery that newly drilled wells meant to provide clean water across southeast Asia were instead poisoning 130 million people with natural arsenic. International efforts have since gone into studying the geology and hydrology of the problem, drilling wells into safer aquifers, and getting people to use them. But as van Geen reveals, many people are still exposed, for reasons that have as much to do with politics and public education as geologic conditions. Van Geen and colleagues are leaders in studying and remediating all aspects of the problem. They are now working in the United States as well, where new health studies are showing that wells laced with arsenic are affecting people in the eastern U.S. and Canada.
Tues. Dec. 16, 9:30-9:45 a.m., 2005 Moscone West. U21A-06 (Invited)
Related: Do Arsenic Concentrations in Groundwater Change Over Time? Therese Chan, Tues. Dec. 16, 1:40-6 p.m., Moscone West Posters. H23E-0921.
Columbia’s arsenic research program
Van Geen’s work in southeast Asia

Low Ground, High Risk Seismic and Flooding Threats in Bangladesh
Christopher Small [email protected], Leonardo Seeber [email protected]
A five-year program has brought into focus the potential for Bangladesh, the world’s most densely populated nation, to suffer catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis and river-course changes—possibly all at once. Seeber and Small will discuss definitive signs of previous big quakes and at least one great tsunami; hidden features under the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta that may drive these disasters; and rapidly moving urbanization that is making the risks ever greater. The evidence rests on satellite imagery, GPS measurements, seismology and sedimentology. Posters on Thursday will delve into the details of apparent past events that could now be repeated with much greater loss of life and property.
Chris Small: Tues. Dec. 16, 8:15-8:30 a.m. U21A-02 (Invited). Leonardo Seeber: Tues. Dec. 16, 9:15-9:30 a.m. U21A-05 (Invited). 2005 Moscone West. Posters: Paleoseismic Records of Earthquakes Along the Southeastern Coast of Bangladesh., T43B-4712; Evidence for Tsunami Generated by the 1762 Great Arkan Earthquake,T43B-4732. Thurs. Dec. 18, 1:40-6 p.m., Moscone South.
Short film on the project

Warmer Climate Threatens Airplane Takeoffs
Ethan Coffel [email protected] Radley Horton [email protected]  (Center for Climate Systems Research)
Climate plays an important, underappreciated role in how much weight aircraft can safely carry at takeoff. Hot weather can reduce lift, forcing airlines to offload cargo and passengers, eating into their bottom line. In what may be the first study to look at the changing economics of flying in a warmer climate, researchers estimate that airlines flying out of four airports—Phoenix, Denver, New York’s LaGuardia and Washington D.C.’s Reagan—will see 50 percent to 200 percent more weight-restricted days in spring and summer by 2050-2070. Worldwide, airports at higher elevations and with short runways and limited room to expand will feel the impacts most. Future airplanes may have to be designed to compensate for reduced lift in the weather of the future.
Tuesday, Dec. 16, 5:30 p.m.-5:45 p.m. Marriott Marquis Salon 13-15 PA24A-07

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory/Environmental Sciences Party
More info: Kevin Krajick [email protected]
Traditionally on Tuesday night at AGU, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia’s Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences gather staff scientists and the many alumni who have since gone on to other institutions worldwide. It is a great opportunity to make acquaintances, hear informally about the latest ideas and work, and have fun. All journalists covering AGU are welcome.
Tues. Dec. 16, 6:30 p.m.-8:30 p.m. (or beyond), San Francisco Marriott Union Square, 480 Sutter Street, Union Square Ballroom

Mapping Defenses Against Urban Heat Waves
Alex de Sherbinin [email protected] (Center for International Earth Science Information Network)
Already vulnerable to heat waves, city dwellers face greater risks as the planet warms. In Philadelphia, where this is already evident, geographers have combined multiple data sets to pinpoint where higher temperatures, less vegetation and a concentration of poor or elderly puts people most at risk. The map is aimed at helping the city plant trees and vegetation where needed (including on rooftops), help social workers respond, and provide other defenses. In 1980-2013, the average number of heat-wave days per year here grew from 4 to 12, largely because streets and buildings trap heat, and there are fewer trees.
Friday, Dec. 19, 8 a.m.-12:20 p.m., Moscone West Posters. GC51B-0417

 Using Submarines to Chart Arctic Ocean Conditions
Raymond Sambrotto [email protected]
Since the 1990s, U.S. Navy subs cruising under Arctic Ocean ice have produced seminal data not available by other means, including measurements of thinning sea ice. The program, dubbed SCICEX, was recently expanded to sample water temperature, chemistry and biology. Sambrotto presents the latest data from the remote western Arctic, gathered in spring 2014. Among other things, it establishes the levels of nutrients under the ice available for biological productivity the following summer, when melting takes place—critical to understanding how ongoing dramatic changes in ice cover may affect Arctic ecology.
Fri. Dec. 19, 8 a.m.-12:20 p.m., Moscone West Poster Hall. OS51C-0989
SCICEX website

Water Systems of the Future
Upmanu Lall [email protected] (Columbia Water Center)
Lall, director of the Columbia Water Center, examines currently overlooked opportunities to redesign water systems to meet rising demand and declining supply. He envisions a new world in which water is treated exquisitely, like a crop of expensive vegetables, for consumption. This would include sophisticated systems to harvest rainwater; new technologies to recycle wastewater; and sensors and smart grids to monitor and manage usage in communities and buildings. He will discuss the technological, financial and social barriers that need to be overcome, and ways to accomplish that. Other talks from the Water Center during the week will cover studies of flooding in rivers from the Hudson to the Danube; newly launched satellite tools to survey global surface moisture; and the operation of China’s Three Gorges Dam.
Fri. Dec. 19, 10:35-10:50 a.m., 2009 Moscone West.
All Columbia Water Center talks

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The Earth Institute, Columbia University, mobilizes the sciences, education and public policy to achieve a sustainable earth. Researchers at our following centers are presenting at AGU:

 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory is one of the world’s leading research centers. It seeks fundamental knowledge about the origin, evolution and future of the natural world. More than 300 research scientists study the planet from its deepest interior to the outer reaches of its atmosphere, on every continent and in every ocean.

 The International Research Institute for Climate and Society aims to enhance society’s ability to manage the impact of seasonal climate fluctuations. From environmental monitoring and forecasting to risk management tools in water resources, public health, agriculture and food security, IRI and its partners focus on opportunities to build capacity for bringing climate information into regional planning and decision-making.

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, an affiliate of The Earth Institute, is a NASA-based climate research center that models and monitors earth systems, to predict atmospheric and climate changes. It also plays an important teaching role, conducting science education programs at universities, schools and other organizations.

 The Center for Climate Systems Research was established to enhance interdisciplinary earth and climate research both at Columbia and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 

The Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) works at the intersection of social, natural and information sciences. It specializes in spatial data integration, and interdisciplinary research related to human interactions in the environment, providing data that informs decision-makers worldwide.  .

The Columbia Water Center tackles the issue of freshwater scarcity through innovations in technology, public policy and private action. Combining scientific research with policy, it aims to design reliable, sustainable models of water management  on local, regional and global levels.