Title: Atmospheric rivers in past, present, and future climates
Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are transient regions of strong moisture transport in Earth’s mid-latitude atmosphere that account for most of the poleward flux of water despite their relatively small areas. ARs have been variously linked to extreme precipitation, flooding, polar ice melt, and other hazards. Yet, in part because they are only loosely defined, their relationship to other phenomena in extratropical dynamics, their role in global energy transport, and their relationship to surface temperatures have not been fully characterized. Similarly, the variability of ARs and their response to forced climate changes at various timescales, along with their accompanying impacts, remain incompletely understood beyond basic thermodynamic expectations. I will discuss recent progress in refining our understanding of the nature, impacts and variability of ARs across different climate states, from past cold states to future warming, with a particular focus on placing ongoing changes in a broader context.
