The Lamont Earth Science Colloquium presents:
Modeling Extreme Events and their Future Changes
with Dr. Ruby Leung, Battelle Fellow, Earth Science, Earth Systems Analysis & Modeling, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Some of the most consequential outcomes of global warming for societies and ecosystems are changes in extreme events. Comparing 2000-2019 with 1980-1999, extreme temperature and flood events have more than doubled globally while the number of disastrous storms and droughts has increased by 30-50%. While the nonlinear increase in latent energy with warmer surface air temperature may explain the global increasing trends in weather extremes, credible projections of the regional changes in extreme events remain challenging. In this presentation, I will discuss some recent advances in modeling extreme events and their future changes. Using a combination of modeling approaches, I will provide examples of projections of future changes in flood-producing winter storms and their characteristics, mesoscale convective systems that produce wind damages and floods, the risk of landfalling hurricanes, and changes in heatwaves and wildfires. These projections underscore the need for adaptation planning for a weather and climate resilient society.
Host: Dr. Richard Seager, Palisades Geophysical Institute/Lamont Research Professor, Ocean and Climate Physics, LDEO.
The Earth Science Colloquium Series, sponsored by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Columbia University Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (DEES), provides a lively forum for discussing a wide variety of topics within the Earth sciences and related fields. Colloquia are attended by the full range of scientific and technical staff at LDEO. Colloquium attendance is required of all pre-orals DEES graduate students. The Colloquium Series supports the Lamont Seminar Diversity Initiative.
