Can you Outsmart Disaster? Make Your National Disaster Plan with An Uncertain Forecast
Governments can take action to prepare for disasters, like national droughts, if they know the disaster is coming. Unfortunately, forecasts for disasters are uncertain probabilities. If you act too aggressively on a forecast, you may spend money in vain, preparing for forecasted droughts that do not occur. If you are too tentative, you may fail to act on a forecast when a drought does happen. In the real world, a leader must balance how much they face each of these, knowing that if you need more time to prepare, you are more likely to get it wrong. In this session you will work with the tools that real government leaders around the world are using to make the tough choices between failing to act, and acting in vain.
Presenter: Dan Osgood, Lead Scientist, Financial Instruments Sector Team, International Research Institute for Climate and Society