Richard Seager

• Zhuo, J.-Y., C.-Y. Lee, A. Sobel, R. Seager, S. Camargo, B. Fosu, Y.-H. Lin and K. Reed, 2024: A more La Nin ̃a-like response to radiative forcing after flux adjustment in CESM2, J. Climate, submitted.
• Kornhuber, K., S. Bartusek, R. Seager, H. J. Schellnhuber and M.Ting, 2024: Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model projections, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., in press.
• Liu, S., S. Hu and R. Seager, 2024: The West Pacific teleconnection drives autumn wildfires in the western United States after 2000, Earth’s Future, submitted.
• Jiang, F., R. Seager and M.A. Cane, 2024: A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability, Nature Comm., 10.1038/s41467-027-52731- 6.
• Schwarzwald, K. and R. Seager, 2023: Revisiting the ”East African Paradox”: CMIP6 models also struggle to reproduce strong observed MAM drying trends, J. Climate, in press.
• Seager, R., M. Ting, P. Alexander, H. Liu, C. Li and J. Nakamura, 2024: Dynamics of future soil moisture drought in the American Southwest: linkages across seasons in the ocean-atmosphere-land system, J. Climate , submitted.
• Seager, R., Y. Wu, A. Cherchi, I.R. Simpson, T.J. Osborn, Y. Kushnir, J. Lukovic, H. Liu and J. Nakamura, 2024: Recent and near-term future changes in impacts- relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world’s Mediterranean climate regions, Int. J. Climatol., doi.org/10.1002/joc.8551.
• Nakamura, J., R. Seager, H. Liu, F. Cottier, M. Puma, D., Wrathall, B.G. Katz, A de Sherbinin and S. Adamo, 2024: Recent trends in agriculturally relevant climate in Central America, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc8476.
• Jiang, F., R. Seager and M.A. Cane, 2024: Historical subsurface cooling in the tropical Pacific and its dynamics, J. Climate, in press.
• Siew, P., Y, Wu, M. Ting, C. Zheng, Q. Ding and R. Seager, 2023: Significant contribution of internal variability to recent Barents-Kara sea ice loss in winter, Nature Comm. Earth Env., submitted.
• Zhang, H., S.-P. Xie and R. Seager, 2024: Dynamical constraint on precipitation bi- ases over the Indo-Pacific region during boreal summer in AMIP6 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2023GL107181.

Mankin, J., N. Siegert, J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, A.P. Williams, C. Lesk. Z. Li, H. Singh and E. Martinez, 2024: Nonlinear carbon feedbacks in CMIP6 and their impacts on future freshwater availability, J. Climate, submitted.
• Shaw, T., P.A. Arias, M. Collins, D. Coumou, A. Diedhiou, C.I. Garfinkel, S. Jain, M.K. Roxy, M. Kretschmer, L. Ruby Leung, S. Narsey, O. Martius, R. Seager, T.G. Shepherd, A. A. Sorenson, T. Stephenson, M. Taylor and L. Wang, 2024: Regional climate change: consensuses, discrepancies and ways forward, Frontiers in Climate, 6:1391364, doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634.
• Li, Z., J. E. Smerdon. R. Seager, N. Siegert and J.S. Mankin, 2024: Emergent trends complicate the interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor, AGU Advances, e2023AV001070, doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001070.
• King, K.E., Cook, E.R., Anchukaitis, K.J., Cook, B.I., Smerdon, J.E., Seager, R., Harley, R. and B. Spei, 2023: The increasing influence of maximum temperatures on summer aridity and the prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century, Sci. Adv., 10, eadj4289.
• Rutgenstein, M., S. Dhame, D. Olonscheck, R.J. Wills, M. Watanabe and R. Seager, 2023: Connecting pattern problem and hot model problem, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105488.
• Jacobson, T. and R. Seager and A.P. Williams and I.R. Simpson and K.A. MacK- innon and H. Liu, 2023: An unexpected decline in spring atmospheric humidity in the interior southwestern United States and implications for forest fires, J. Hydrom- eteor., 25, 373-390.
• Seager, R., M. Ting, P. Alexander, H. Liu, J. Nakamura, C. Li and M. Newman, 2023: Ocean forcing of cool season precipitation drives ongoing and future decadal drought in southwestern North America, npj Atm. Clim. Sci., 6, 141.
• Siew, P., Y, Wu, M. Ting, C. Zheng, R. Clancy, N, T. Kurtz and R. Seager, 2023: Physical links from atmospheric circulation patterns to Barents-Kara sea ice vari- ability from synoptic to seasonal timescales in the cold season, J. Climate, 36, 8027- 8040.
• Schwarzwald, K., R. Seager, M. Ting and A. Giannini, 2023: Large-scale stability and the Greater Horn of Africa long and short rains, J. Cllimate, 36, 7297-7317.
• Wu, Y., J. Lu, M. Ting, R. Seager and F. Liu, 2023: The most effective remote forcing in causing U.S.-wide heat extremes as revealed by CESM Green’s Function experiments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL103355.
• Hu, S. and R. Seager, 2023: Revisiting the enhanced Indian Ocean warming since 1950: A major point of disagreement between observations and CMIP6 models, J. Climate, submitted.
• Sobel, A., C.-Y. Lee, S.G. Bowen, S. S. J. Camargo, M.A. Cane, A. Clement, B. Fosu, M. Hart, K.A. Reed, R. Seager and M.K. Tippett, 2023: Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 120, e2209631120.
• Simpson, I.R., K.C. McKinnon, D. Kennedy, D. M. Lawrence, F. Lehner and R. Seager, 2023: Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 121, e2302480120, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2302480120.
• Wong, S., G. McKinley and R. Seager, 2022: Equatorial Pacific pCO2 interannual Variability in CMIP6 Models, JGR-Biogeosciences, 127, doi:10.1029/2022JG007243

• Hoell, A., X.-W. Quan, M. Hoerling, H. Diaz, R. Fu, C. He, J. Lisonbee, J. Mankin, R. Seager, A. Sheffield and E. Wahl, 2022: Water year 2021 compound precipitation and temperature extremes in California and Nevada, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0129.1.
• Cottier, F., W. Schlenker, E. Ilboudo N ́ebi ́e, R. Seager, S. McDermid, M.J. Puma, W. Anderson, A. de Sherbinin and A. R. Bell, 2022: Crop price variability, environ- mental change and intra-regional migration in Africa, Nature Comm., submitted.
• Hu, S., S.-P. Xie, R. Seager and M. A. Cane, 2022: Spatial and seasonal variations of sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection, J. Climate, 36, 4899-4912.
• Cook, B.I., J. Smerdon, E. Cook, A. Williams, K. Anchukaitis, J. Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu-Hayles, T. Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, B. Coulthard, B. Fonsu, P. Grierson, D. Griffin, D. Herrera, M. Ionita, F. Lehner, C. Leland, K. Marvel, M. Morales, V. Mishra, J. Ngoma, H. Nguyen, A. O’Donnell, J. Palmer, M. Rao, M. Rodriguez-Caton, R. Seager, D. Stahle, S. Stevenson, U. Thapa, A. Varuolo-Clarke, and E. Wise, 2022: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nature Rev. Earth Env., 3, 741-757.
• Lee, S., M. L’Heureux, A. Wittenberg, R. Seager, P. O’Gorman and N. Johnson, 2022: On the Future Climate of the Tropical Pacific: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories, npj Climate and Atmos. Sci., 5:82 doi.org/10.1038/s41612- 022-00301-2.
• Schwarzwald, K., L. Goddard, R. Seager, M. Ting and K. Marvel, 2022: Under- standing CMIP6 biases in the representation of the Greater Horn of Africa long and short rains, Clim. Dyn., doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06622-5
• Seager, R., M. Ting. P. A. Alexander, J. Nakamura, H. Liu, C. Li and I.R. Simpson, 2022: Mechanisms of a meteorological drought onset: summer 2020 to spring 2021 in southwestern North America, . J. Climate, 35, 3767-3785, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI- D-22-0314.s1.
• Zhang, H., R. Seager and S.P. Xie, 2022: How does sea surface temperature drive the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the southern Indian Ocean? J. Climate, 35, 5415-5432.
• Reed, C., W. Anderson, A. Kruczkiewicz, J. Nakamura, D. Gallo, R. Seager and S. McDermid, 2022: The impact of flooding on food security across sub-Saharan Africa, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 119, doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2119399119
• Jacobson, T., R. Seager, A.P. Williams and N. Henderson, 2022: Climate dynamics preceding summer forest fires in California and the extreme case of 2018, J. Appl. Clim. Meteor., 61, 989-1002, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0198.1.
• Seager, R., N. Henderson and M.A. Cane, 2022: Persistent discrepancies between observed and modeled trends in the tropical Pacific, J. Climate, 35, 4571-4584.
• Zhang, C., M. Ting, Y. Wu, N. Kurtz, C. Orbe, P. Alexander, R. Seager and M. Tedesco, 2022: Turbulent heat flux, downward longwave radiation and large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with wintertime Barents-Kara Sea extreme sea ice loss events, J. Climate, 35, 3747-3765.
• Bishop, D., A. P. Williams, R. Seager, E. R. Cook, D. M. Peteet, B. I. Cook, M.P. Rao and D. W. Stahle, 2021: Placing the east-west North American aridity gradient in a multi-century context, Env. Res. Lett., 16, L114043, doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/ac2f63

Cottier, F., M. Laurence-Flahaux, J. Ribot, R. Seager and G. Ssekajja, 2022: Re- framing the frame: Cause and effect in climate-related migration, World Dev., 158, 1-9.

Cottier, F., E. Ilboudo N ́ebi ́e, R. Seager, W. Schlenker, S. McDermid, M. Puma, C. Morris, A. de Sherbinin, W. Anderson and A.R. Bell, 2022: Migration within and out of West Africa: Recent trends and drivers, Int. Migration Rev., submitted.

Hoell, A., X.-W. Quan, M. Hoerling, R. Fu, J. Mankin, I. Simpson, R. Seager, C. He, F. Lehner, J. Lisonbee, B. Livneh and A. Sheffield, 2022: Record low North American monsoon rainfall in 2020 reignites drought over the American Southwest, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1075/BAMS-D-21-0129.1

Ting, M., R. Seager, C. Li, H. Liu and N. Henderson, 2021: Future summer drying in the U.S. Corn belt and the role of mid-latitude storm tracks, J. Climate, 34, 9043-9056.

Scholz, S., R. Seager, M. Ting, Y. Kushnir, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and S.-H. Baek, 2021: Changing hydroclimate dynamics and the 19th to 20th century wetting trend in the English Channel region of northwest Europe, Clim. Dyn., doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021005977-5 .

Varuolo-Clarke, A., J.E. Smerdon, A. P. Williams and R. Seager, 2021: Gross dis- crepancies between observed and simulated 20th to 21st century precipitation trends in southeastern South America, J. Climate, 34, 6441-6457.

Steiger, N., J.E. Smerdon, A.P. Williams, R. Seager, A. Varuolo-Clarke, 2021: ENSO-driven coupled megadroughts in North and South America over the last mil- lennium, Nat. Geo., 14, 739-744, doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00819-9.

Jong, B.-T., M. Ting and R. Seager, 2021: Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America, J. Climate, 34, 3629-3643.

Seager, R., N. Henderson, M.A. Cane, H. Zhang and J. Nakamura, 2021: Atmosphere- ocean dynamics of persistent cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean, J. Climate, 34, 5195-5214.

Suarez-Moreno, R., Y. Kushnir and R. Seager, 2021: Assessing decadal and long- term hydroclimate drivers in the Mediterranean region: contribution of internal variability and external forcings, Clim. Dyn., doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05765-1.

Zhang, H., R. Seager, J. He, H. Diao and S. Pascale, 2021: Quantifying atmo- sphere and ocean origins of North American precipitation variability, Clim. Dyn., doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05685-0.

Anderson, W., C. Taylor, S. McDermid, E. Ilboudo-Nebie, R. Seager, W. Schlenker, F. Cottier, A. de Sherbinin, D. Mendeloff, K. Markey, 2021: Violent conflict exacer- bated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature Food, doi.10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4.

Baek, S.-H., J. Smerdon, G.-C. Dobrin, J. Naimark, E.R. Cook, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, M.A. Cane and S. Scholz, 2020: A quantitative hydroclimatic context for the European Great Famine of 1315-17, Nature Comm., Nature Comm. Env., doi.org/10.1038/s-43247-020-00016-3.

McDermid, S., B. I. Cook, M. G. DeKauwe, J. Mankin, J. E. Smerdon, A. P. Williams, R. Seager, M.J. Puma, I. Aleinov, M. Kelley and L.Nazarenko, 2020: Disentangling the regional climate impacts of competing vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric CO2, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034108. 

• Seager, R., J. Nakamura and M. Ting, 2020: Prediction of seasonal meteorological drought onset and termination over the southern Great Plains in the North American Multimodel Ensemble, J. Hydromet., 21, 2237-2255.
• Seager, R., H. Liu, Y. Kushnir, T.J. Osborn, I.R. Simpson, C.R. Kelley, J. Naka- mura, 2020: Mechanisms of winter precipitation variability in the European Mediter- ranean region associated the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 33, 7179-7196.
• Greene, A. and R. Seager, 2020: Climate variability and change in western U.S. rangelands, Int. J. Env. Clim. Ch., 10, 52-74.
• Jong, B.-T., M. Ting, R. Seager and W. Anderson, 2019: ENSO teleconnections and impacts on US summertime temperature during multi-year La Nin ̃a life-cycle, J. Climate, 33, 6009-6024.
• Cook, B.I., S. McDermid, M.J. Puma, A.P. Williams, R. Seager, M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko and I. Aleinov, 2020: Divergent regional climate consequences of main- taining current irrigation rates in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 25, doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031814.
• Baek, S.-H., J.E. Smerdon, M. Ting. Y. Kushnir and R. Seager, 2020: Untangling the spatiotemporal features of 20th century Atlantic multidecadal variability, . Nat. Comm., submitted.
• Wu, Y., I. R. Simpson and R. Seager, 2019: Inter-model spread in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change in the CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13,290-13,298.
• Bishop, D., A. P. Williams and R. Seager, 2019: Increased fall precipitation in the southeastern US driven by higher-intensity, frontal precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8300-8309, doi:10.1029/2019GL083177.
• Baek, S. H., N. Steiger, J. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2019: Oceanic drivers of widespread drought in the United States over the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8721-8280, doi:10.1029/2019GL082838.
• Mankin, J., R. Seager, J. Smerdon, B. Cook and A. P. Williams, 2019: Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change, Nature Geo., 12, 983-988.
• Steiger, N., J. Smerdon, R. Seager, B. Cook and A. P. Williams, 2019: Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American southwest, Sci. Adv., 5, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax0087.
• Seager, R., M. A. Cane, N. Henderson, D. E. Lee. R. Abernathey and H. Zhang, 2019: Strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient is a consistent re- sponse to rising greenhouse gases, Nature Clim. Ch., 9, 517-522.
• Seager, R., M. Ting and J. Nakamura, 2019: Mechanisms of seasonal soil moisture drought onset and termination in the southern Great Plains, J. Hydromet., 32, 751-771.
• Pascolini-Campbell, M., R. Seager, A. P. Williams. B. I. Cook and A. Pinson, 2019: Dynamics and variability of the spring dry season in the United States Southwest as observed in AmeriFlux and NLDAS-2 data, J. Hydromet., 20, 1081-1102.
• Seager, R., T. J. Osborn, Y. Kushnir, I. R. Simpson, H. Liu and J. Nakamura, 2019: Climate variability and change in Mediterranean-type climate regions, J. Climate, 32, 2887-2916.

• Bishop, D., A. P. Williams, R. Seager, A. M. Fiore, B. I. Cook, J. S. Mankin, D. Singh, J. E. Smerdon and M. P. Rao, 2019: Investigating the causes of increased 20th-century precipitation over the southeastern United States, J. Climate, 32, 575- 590, doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1
• Seager, R., A. P. Williams, J. Nakamura and J. Axelson, 2019: Analysis and mod- eling of interannual timescale coupling between drought and bark beetles across the American West, in prep.
• Baek, H., J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams and B. I. Cook, 2019: Pa- cific Ocean forcing and atmospheric variability are the dominant causes of spatially widespread droughts in the contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res., 124, 2507- 2524.
• Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen, M. Cane and L. Zou, 2019: Synchronous
crop failures and climate-forced production variability, Sci. Adv., 5, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaw1976.
• Cook, B., R. Seager, A. P. Williams, M. J. Puma, S. McDermid, M. Kelly and L. Nazarenko, 2019: Climate change amplification of natural drought variability: The historic mid-twentieth century North American drought in a warmer world, J. Climate, 32, 5417-5436.
• Simpson, I., P. Hitchcock, R. Seager, Y. Wu, 2019: The role of the stratosphere in future climate projections, CLIVAR Variations, 17, 33-39.
• Simpson, I.R., P. Hitchcock, R. Seager, Y. Wu and P. Callaghan, 2018: The down- ward influence of uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex response to climate change. J. Climate, 31, 6371-6391.
• Mankin, J, S., R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams and R. H. Hor- ton, 2018: Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2 enriched world. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, doi.org/10.1002/2018GL077051.
• Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen and M. A. Cane, 2018: Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to agriculture, Ag. Forest. Meteor., 262, 298-309.
• Ting, M., R. Seager, C. Li and H. Liu, 2018: Mechanism of future spring drying in the southwest U.S. in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 31, 4265-4279.
• Singh, D., R. Seager, B. Cook, M. Cane, M. Ting, E. Cook, M. Davis, 2018: Climate and the great global famine of 1876-78. J. Climate, 31, 9445-9467.
• Seager, R., J. Feldman, N. Lis, M. Ting, A. P. Williams, J. Nakamura, H. Liu and N. Henderson, 2018: Whither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s arid-humid divide. Part II: The meridian moves east, Earth Interactions, 22, DOI:10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1.
• Seager, R., N. Lis, J. Feldman, M. Ting, A. P. Williams, J. Nakamura, H. Liu and N. Henderson, 2018: Whither the 100th meridian? The once and future physical and human geography of America’s arid-humid divide. Part I: The story so far, Earth Interactions, 22, DOI:10.1175/EI-D-17-0011.1.
• Jong, B.-T., M. Ting, R. Seager and D.-E. Lee, 2018: Role of equatorial Pacific SST forecast error in the late winter California precipitation forecast for the 2015/16 El Nin ̃o, J. Climate, 31, 839-852.
• Giannini, A., B. Lyon, R. Seager and N. Vigaud, 2018: Dynamical and thermody- namic elements of modeled climate change at the East African margin of convection. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 992-1000, doi: 10.1002/2017GL075486.• Kelley, C., S. Mohtadi, M. Cane, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2017: Commentary on the Syria case: climate as a contributing factor. —em Political Geog., 60, 245-247.
• Mankin, J., J. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams and R. Seager, 2017: The curious case of projected 21st century drying but greening in the American West, J. Climate, 30, 8689-8710.
• Cook, B. I., A.P. Williams, J.S. Mankin, R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon and D. Singh, 2017: Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States, J. Climate, 31, 25-43.
• Seager, R., N. Henderson, M.A. Cane, H. Liu and J. Nakamura, 2017: Is there a role for human-driven climate change in the precipitation decline that drove the California drought?, J. Climate, 30, 10237-10258
• Smerdon, J. E. and others, 2017: Comparing proxy and model estimates of hy- droclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past, 13, 1851-1900.
• Scheff, J., R. Seager, H. Liu and S. Coats, 2017: Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for greenhouse warming, J. Climate, 30, 6593-6609.
• Pascolini-Campbell, M., R. Seager, A. Pinson and B. Cook, 2017: Co-variability of climate and streamflow of the upper Rio Grande. J. Hydrol. Reg. Proc., 13, 58-71.
• Seager, R. and M. Ting, 2017: Decadal drought variability over North America: Mechanisms and predictability, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., DOI 10.1007/s40641- 017-0062-1.
• Williams, A.P., B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, D. A. Bishop and R. Seager, 2017: The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., doi:10.1002/2017JD027523.
• Baek, H. S., J. E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A. P. Williams, B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2017: Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, J. Climate, 30, 7141-7155.
• Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen and M. Cane, 2017: Crop production vari- ability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Nin ̃o Southern Oscillation, Ag. Forest. Meteor., 239, 151-165.
• Biasutti, M., R. Seager and D. Kirschbaum, 2017: Landslides in West Coast Metropoli- tan areas: the role of extreme weather events, Weather and Climate Extremes, 14, 67-79.
• Seager, R. and N. Henderson, 2016: On the role of tropical ocean forcing of the persistent North American west coast ridge of winter 2013/14. J. Climate, 29, 8027-8049.
• Coats, S., K. Karnauskas, J. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2016: The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Env. Res. Lett., 11, 074025, doi:10.1088/1748- 9326/11/7/074025.
• Jong, B., M. Ting and R. Seager, 2016: El Nin ̃o’s impact on California precipita- tion: Seasonality, regionality and El Nin ̃o intensity. Env. Res. Lett.,, 11, 054021, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054021.
• Coats, S., J. Smerdon, B. Cook, R. Seager, E. Cook and K. Anchukaitis, 2016: Inter- nal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9886-9894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105..

Anderson, W., R. Seager, W. Baethgen and M. Cane, 2016: Life cycles of agriculturally- relevant ENSO teleconnections in North and South America, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4916..

Ramesh, N., M. Cane and R. Seager, 2016: Predictability and prediction of persis- tent cool states of the tropical Pacific Ocean, 2015: Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382- 016-3446-3.

Schubert, S. D. and R. E. Stewart and H. Wang and M. Barlow and E. Berberry and W. Cai and M. P. Hoerling and K. K. Kanikicharla and R. D.Koster and B. Lyon and A. Mariotti and C. R. Mechoso and O. V. Muller and B. Rodriguez-Fonseca and R. Seager and S. I. Senevirante and L. Zhang and T. Zhou, 2016: Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits, J. Climate, 29, 3989-4019.

Greene, A. M. and R. Seager, 2016: Categorical representation of North American precipitation projections, Nature Sci. Rep., DOI: 10.1038/srep23888.

Cook, B., E. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, S. Coats, D. W. Stahle and J. Villanueva-Diaz, 2016: North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations, WIREs Clim. Change doi: 10.1002/wcc.394.

Cook, E. R., R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, K. Briffa, U. Buntgen, D. Frank, P. Krusic, W. Tegel, G. van der Schrier, L. Andreu-Hayles, M. Baillie, C. Baitttinger, A. Billamboz, N. Bleicher, N. Bonde, D. Brown, M. Carrer, R. Cooper, K. Cufar, C. Dittmar, J. Esper, C. Giggs, B. Gunnarson, B. Gunther, E. Gutierrez, K. Haneca, S. Helema, F. Herzig, K.-U. Heussner, J. Hofman, P. Janda, R. Kontic, N. Kose, T. Kyncl, T. Levanic, H. Linderholm, S. Manning, T. Melvin, D. Miles, B. Neuwirth, K. Nicolussi, P. Nola, M. Panayotov, I. Popa, A. Rothe, K. Seftigen, A. Seim, H. Svarva, M. Svoboda, T. Thun, M. Timonen, R. Touchan, V. Trotsiuk, V. Truet, F. Walder, T. Wazny, R. Wilson, C. Zang, 2015: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Science Adv., doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500561.

Williams, A. P., R. Seager, J. T. Abatzoglou, B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon and E. R. Cook, 2015: Contribution of anthropogenic warming to the 2012-14 California drought, Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1002/2015GL063266.

Coats, S., B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2015: Winter-to-summer pre- cipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multi-century perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 8052-8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.

Yang, W., R. Seager, M. A. Cane and B. Lyon, 2015: The rainfall annual cycle bias over East Africa induced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. J. Climate, 28, 9789-9802.

Simpson, I., R. Seager, M. Ting and T. Shaw, 2016: Causes of change in North- ern Hemisphere winter meridional wind and regional hydroclimate, Nature Clim. Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2783.

Seager, R., M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, H. Wang, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, J. Nakamura and N. Henderson, 2015: Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought, J. Climate, 28, 6997-7024, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1.

Biasutti, M. and R. Seager 2015: Projected changes in U.S. erosivity. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., doi:10.5194/hessd-12-1469-2015.

Williams, A. P., R. E. Schwartz, S. Iacobellis, R. Seager, B. I. Cook, C. J. Still, G. Husak and J. Michaelsen, 2015: Urbanization causes increased cloud base height anddecreased fog in coastal Southern California. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 15271536, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063266.
• Coats, S., B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon and R. Seager, 2015: North American Pan- Continental Drought in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium, J. Climate, 28, 2025-2043.
• Smerdon, J. E., B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Bridging past and future climate across models and observations: A hydroclimate case study. J. Climate, 28, 3212-3231.
• Seager, R., A. Hooks, A. P. Williams, B. I. Cook and J. Nakamura, 2015: Cli- matology, variability and trends in the U.S. vapor pressure deficit, an important fire-related meteorological variable. J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 54, 1121-1141.
• Pascolini-Campbell, M. A., R. Seager, D. Gutzler, B. Cook, D. Griffin, 2015: Causes of interannual to decadal variability of Gila River streamflow over the past century. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 3, 494-508.
• Yang, W., R. Seager, M. A. Cane and B. Lyon, 2015: The annual cycle of East African precipitation. J. Climate, 28, 2385-2404.
• Simpson, I., R. Seager, T. Shaw and M. Ting, 2015: Mediterranean summer climate and the importance of Middle East topography. J. Climate, 28, 1977-1996.
• Seager, R. 2015: Decadal hydroclimate variability across the Americas. In Climate Change, Multidecadal and Beyond, C.-P. Chang, M. Ghil, M. Latif and J. M. Wal- lace, Eds., World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, ISBN:978-981-4579-92-6, 4, pp235-253.
• Coats, S., J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook and R. Seager, 2015: Are simulated megadroughts in the North American southwest forced? J. Climate, 28, 124-142.
• Kelley, C., S. Mohtadi, M. Cane, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2015: Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi/10.1073/pnas.1421533112.
• Ballard, T., R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson, 2014: Hydroclimate variability and change in the Prairie Potholes Region: The ”duck factory” of North America, Earth Interac- tions, 14, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-14-0004.1.
• Cook, B. I., R. Seager and J. E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought
year of the last millennium: 1934. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061661.
• Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir and M. Ting, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 27, 7921-7948.
• Kang, S., R. Seager, D. Frierson and X. Liu, 2014: Croll revisited: Why is the north- ern hemisphere warmer than the southern hemisphere? Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382- 014-2147-z.
• Simpson, I., T. Shaw and R. Seager, 2014: A diagnosis of the seasonally and lon- gitudinally varying mid-latitude circulation response to global warming. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2489-2515.
• Cook, B., J. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Clim. Dyn., 43, 2607-2627, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y.
• Yang, W., R. Seager, M. Cane and B. Lyon, 2014: The East African long rains in observations and models. J. Climate, 27, 7185-7202.

Seager, R., H. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir and M. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655-4676.

Seager, R. and M. P. Hoerling, 2014: Atmosphere and ocean origins of North Amer- ican droughts, J. Climate, 27, 4581-4606.

Williams, A. P., R. Seager, M. Berkelhammer, A. K. Macaladay, M. A. Crimmins, T. W. Swetnam, A. T. Trugman, N. Buenning, N. Hyrniw, N. G. McDowell, D. Noone, C. I. Mora, T. Rahn, 2014: Causes and implications of extreme atmospheric moisture demand during the record-breaking 2011 wildfire season in the southwest United States, J. App. Meteor. Clim., 53, 2671-2684.

Williams, A. P., R. Seager, A. K. Macaladay, M. Berkelhammer, M. A. Crimmins, T. W. Swetnam, A. T. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N. G. McDowell, N. Hyrniw, C. I. Mora, T. Rahn, 2014: Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest-fire area in the southwest United States, Int. J. Wildland Fire, http://dx/doi.org/10.1071/WF14023.

Seager, R., L. Goddard, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson, D. Lee, 2014: Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 first year of the Texas-northern Mexico drought. J. Hydromet., 15, 39-68.

Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert and R. Seager, 2014: Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 269-282.

Maloney, E.D. and others, 2014: North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century Projections. J. Climate, 27, 2230-2270.

Cook, B. I., J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E. R. Cook, 2014: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, 27, 383-397.

Sheffield, J. and others, 2013: North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of historical simulations of intra-Seasonal to decadal variability. J. Climate, 26, 9247-9290.

Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, R. Seager, 2013: Stationarity of the tropi- cal Pacific teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 Model Simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50938.

Sheffield, J. and others, 2013: North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I Evaluation of historical simulations of continental and regional climatology. J. Climate, 26, 9209-9245.

Seager, R. and N. Henderson, 2013: Diagnostic computation of moisture budgets in the ERA-Interim Reanalysis with reference to analysis of CMIP-archived atmo- spheric model data. J. Climate, 26, 7876-7901.

Gonzalez, P., L. Polvani, R. Seager and G. Correa, 2013: Stratospheric ozone deple- tion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1777-x.

Frierson, D. Y.-T. Hwang, N. Fuckar, R. Seager, S. M. Kang, A. Donahue, E. A. Maroon, X. Liu, D. S. Battisti, 2013: Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience, 6, 940-944.

Tierney, J., J. Smerdon , K. Anchukaitis and R. Seager, 2013: Multidecadal vari- ability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature, 439, 389-392.• Coats, S., J. Smerdon, R. Seager, B. Cook and J. F. Gonzalez-Rpuco, 2013: Megadroughts in southwest North America in ECHO-G millennial simulations and their comparison to proxy drought reconstructions. J. Climate, 26, 7635-7649.
• Yang, W., R. Seager and M. A. Cane, 2013: Zonal momentum balance in the tropical atmospheric circulation during the global monsoon mature months. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 583-599.
• Cook, B. I. and R. Seager, 2013: The response of the North American Monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 118, 1690-1699.
• Seager, R., M. Ting, C. Li, N. Naik, B. Cook, J. Nakamura and H. Liu, 2013: Pro- jections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States. Nature Climate Change, 3, 482-486.
• Williams, A.P., C. D. Allen, A. K. Macalady, D. Griffin, C. Woodhouse, D. Meko, T. Swetnam, S. Rauscher, R. Seager, H. Grissino-Mayer, J. Dean, E.R. Cook, C. Gangodagamage, M. Cai and N. McDowell, 2013: Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality, Nature Climate Change, 3, 292-297.
• Wu, Y., L. Polvani and R. Seager, 2013: The importance of the Montreal Protocol for protecting the Earth’s hydroclimate. J. Climate, 26, 4049-4068.
• Nakamura, J., U. Lall, Y. Kushnir, A. Robertson and R. Seager, 2013: Dynam- ical structure of major floods in the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom. J. Hydromet., 14, 485-504.
• Wu, Y., R. Seager, T. Shaw, M. Ting and N. Naik, 2013: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide. Part II: Atmospheric transient adjustment and its dynamics. J. Climate, 26, 918-935.
• Karnauskas, K., R. Seager, A. Giannini and A. Busalacchi, 2013: A simple mecha- nism for the climatological mid-summer drought along the Pacific coast of Central America. Atmosfera, 26, 261-281.
• Cook, B. I., R. Seager, R. L. Miller and J.A. Mason, 2013: Intensification of North American megadroughts through surface and dust aerosol forcing. J. Climate, 26, 4414-4430.
• Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2012: Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2012GL053416.
• Karnauskas, K, J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager and J. F. Gonzalez-Rouco, 2012: A Pacific centennial oscillation predicted by coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5943-5961.
• Seager, R., N. Pederson, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and S. Jurburg, 2012: The 1960s drought and subsequent shift to a wetter climate in the Catskill Mountains region of the New York City watershed. J. Climate, 25, 6721-6742.
• Pederson, N., A. Bell, E. Cook, U. Lall, N. Devenini, R. Seager, K. Eggelston and K. Vranes, 2012: Is an epic pluvial masking the water insecurity of the greater New York City region? J. Climate, 26, 1339-1354.
• Seager, R., N. Naik and L. Vogel, 2012: Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability?, J. Climate, 25, 3355-3372.
• Wu, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik and T. Shaw, 2012: Atmospheric circulation response to an instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide. Part I: Model experiments and transient thermal response in the troposphere. J. Climate, 25, 2862-2879.
• Seager, R. and N. Naik, 2012: A mechanisms-based approach for detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change. J. Climate, 25, 236-261.

Ruff, T., Y. Kushnir and R. Seager, 2012: Comparing Twentieth and Twenty-First Century patterns of interannual precipitation variability over the western United States and northern Mexico. J. Hydrometeor., 13, 366-378.

Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2011: The relative roles of nat- ural variability and forced change in causing the late 20th Century drying of the Mediterranean region. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1221.

Cook, B., R. Seager and R. Miller, 2011: The causes and dynamics of the early 20th Century North American pluvial. J. Climate, 24, 5043-5060.

Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2011: Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17705, doi:10.1029/2011GL048712.

Seager, R. and R. Burgman, 2011: Medieval hydroclimate revisited. PAGES, 19, 10-12.

D’Arrigo, R., R. Seager, J. Smerdon, A. LeGrande and E. Cook 2011: Winter 1783- 1784: Was Laki or an analog of winter 2009/10 to blame? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL046696.

Cook, B., R. Seager and R. Miller, 2011: Impact of devegetated dune fields on North American climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL047566.

Seager, R., N. Naik, W. Baethgen, A. Robertson, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and S. Jurburg, 2010: Tropical oceanic causes of interannual to multidecadal precipitation variability in southeast South America over the past century. J. Climate, 23, 5517- 5539.

Cook, B., E. Cook, K. Anchukaitis, R. Seager and R. Miller, 2010: Forced and unforced variability of 20th Century North American droughts and pluvials. Clim. Dyn., doi:10/1007/s00382-010-0897-9.

Cook, B., R. Seager and R. Miller, 2010: Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent North American droughts: 1932-1939 and 1948-1957. Clim. Dyn., 36, 2339-.2355

Harnik, N., R. Seager, N. Naik, M. Cane and M. Ting, 2010: The role of linear wave refraction in the transient eddy-mean flow response to tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteror. Soc., 136, 2132-2146.

Seager, R. and G. Vecchi, 2010: Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydro- climate of southwestern North America. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 107, 21277-21282.

Kushnir, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik and J. Nakamura, 2010: Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability. J. Climate, 23, 5610-5628.

Seager, R., N. Naik and G. Vecchi, 2010: Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Climate, 23, 4651-4668.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting and N. Naik, 2010: Northern hemi- sphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and winter of 2009/10. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Wu, Y., M. Ting, R. Seager, H.-P. Huang and M. Cane, 2010: Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0776-4.

Burgman, R., R. Seager, A. C. Clement and C. Herweijer, 2010: Role of tropical Pacific SSTs in global medieval hydroclimate: A modeling study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, doi:10.1029/2009GL042239.

Seager, R., N. Naik, M. Ting, N. Harnik, M. Cane and Y. Kushnir, 2010: Adjust- ment of the atmospheric circulation to tropical Pacific SST anomalies: Variability of transient eddy propagation in the Pacific North-America sector. Quart. J. Royal. Meteor. Soc., 136, 277-296.

Schubert, S. and 32 others (incl. R. Seager), 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272

Cook, E. R., R. Seager, R. R. Heim, R. S. Vose, C. Herweijer, C. Woodhouse, 2010: Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long term paleoclimatic context. J. Quat. Sci., 25, 48-61.

Cook, B., R. Miller and R. Seager, 2009, Amplification of the North American Dust Bowl drought through human-induced land surface degradation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 106, 4997-5001.

Seager, R., A. Tzanova and J. Nakamura 2009: Drought in the southeastern United States: Causes, variability over the last millennium and the potential for near future hydroclimate change. J. Climate, 22, 5021-5045.

Stahle, D.W., E. R. Cook, J. Villanueva Diaz, F. K. Fye, D. J. Burnette, R. D. Griffin, R. Acun ̃a-Soto, R. Seager and R. R. Heim, 2009: Early 21st Century drought in Mexico. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 90, 89-90.

Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal 20th Century SST changes in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.

Karnauskas, K., R. Seager, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir and M. A. Cane, 2009: Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, J. Climate, 22, 4316-4321.

Seager, R., M. Ting, M. Davis, M. Cane, N. Naik, J. Miller, C. Li, E.R. Cook and D.W. Stahle, 2009: Mexican drought: An observational, modeling and tree ring reconstruction study of variability and climate change. Atmosfera, 22, 1-31.

Cook, B., R. Miller and R. Seager, 2008: Dust and sea surface temperature forcing of the 1930s ’Dust Bowl’ drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL033486.

Seager, R., R. Burgman, Y. Kushnir, A. C. Clement, E. R. Cook, N. Naik and J. Miller, 2008: Tropical Pacific forcing of North American Medieval megadroughts; Testing the concept with an atmosphere model forced by coral-reconstructed SSTs J. Climate, bf 21, 6175-6190.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, M. Ting, M. Cane, N. Naik and J. Miller, 2008: Would advance knowledge of 1930s SSTs have allowed prediction of the Dust Bowl drought? J. Climate, 21, 3261-3281

Emile-Geay, J., R. Seager, M. A. Cane. G. H. Haug and E. R. Cook 2008: Volcanoes and ENSO over the last millennium, J. Climate., 21, 3134-3138.

Herweijer, C. and R. Seager, 2008: The global footprint of persistent extra-tropical drought in the instrumental era. Int. J. Climatol., , doi:10.1002/joc.1590.

Murtugudde, R., R. Seager and P. Thoppil, 2008: Arabian Sea response to monsoon variations. Paleoceanogr., bf 22, doi:10.1029/2007PA001467.

Seager, R., M. Ting, I. M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez and N. Naik, 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Science, 316, 1181-1184.

Seager, R., N. E. Graham, C. Herweijer, A. Gordon, Y. Kushnir and E. Cook, 2007: Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate. Quat. Sci. Rev., 26, 2322-2336.

Emile-Geay, J., M.A. Cane, R. Seager, A. Kaplan and P. Almasi, 2007: El Nin ̃o as a mediator of the solar influence on climate, Paleoceanogr., 22, doi:10.1029/2006PA001304.

Seager, R., 2007: The turn of the century North American drought: Global context, dynamics and past analogues. J. Climate, 20, 5527-5552.

• Herweijer, C., R. Seager and E. R. Cook, 2007: North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree ring data. J. Climate, 20, 1353-1376.

• Cook, E.R., R. Seager, M.A. Cane and D. W. Stahle, 2007: North American droughts: reconstructions, causes and consequences. Earth Sci. Rev., 81, 93-134.

• Seager, R. and D. S. Battisti, 2007: Challenges to our understanding of the general circulation: Abrupt climate change. The General Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. P. Schneider and A.S. Sobel, Eds., Princeton University Press, pp 331-371.

• Herweijer, C., R. Seager and E. R. Cook, 2006: North American Droughts of the mid to late Nineteenth Century: A history, model simulation and implications for Medieval megadrought. The Holocene, 16, 159-171.

• Huang, H.-P., R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2005: The 1976/77 transition in precipita- tion over the Americas and the influence of tropical SST. Clim. Dyn., 24, 721-740.

• Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856-2000. J. Climate, 18, 4068-4091.

• Clement, A. C., R. Seager and R. Murtugudde, 2005: Why are there tropical warm pools? J. Climate, 18, 5294-5311.

• Hazeleger, W., C. Severeijns. R. Seager and F. Molteni, 2005: Tropical Pacific- driven decadal energy transport variability. J. Climate, 18, 2037-2051.

• Herweijer, C., R. Seager and M. Winton, 2005: Why ocean heat transport warms the global mean climate. Tellus, 57A, 662-675.

• Seager, R., W. A. Robinson, N. Harnik, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting, H. Huang and J. Velez, 2005: Mechanisms of ENSO-forcing of hemispherically symmetric precipita- tion variability. Q. J. Royal. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 1501-1527.

• Karspeck, A., R. Seager and M. Cane, 2004: Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability in an intermediate model. J. Climate, 17, 2842-2850.

• Seager, R., A, Karspeck, M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Giannini, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman and J. Miller, 2004: Predicting Pacific decadal variability, In Earth Climate: The ocean-atmosphere interaction, C. Wang, S.-P. Xie and J. A. Carton, Eds., 105-120.

• Hazeleger, W., R. Seager, M. A. Cane and N. Naik, 2004: How can tropical Pacific ocean heat transport vary? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 320-333.

• Emile-Geay, J., M.A. Cane, N. Naik, R. Seager, A.C. Clement and A. van Geen, 2003: Warren revisited: Atmospheric freshwater fluxes and “Why is no deep water formed in the North Pacific?”. J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi:10.1029/2001JC001058.

• Seager, R., R. Murtugudde, A. C. Clement and C. Herweijer, 2003: Why is there an evaporation minimum at the Equator? J. Climate, 16, 3792-3801.• Seager, R., N. Harnik, Y. Kushnir, W. A. Robinson and J. Miller, 2003: Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric climate variability. J. Climate, 16, 2960-2978.
  • Seager, R., R. Murtugudde, N. Naik, A. Clement, N. Gordon and J. Miller, 2003: Air-sea interaction and the seasonal cycle of the subtropical anticyclones. J. Climate, 16, 1948-1966.
  • Kushnir, Y., R. Seager, J. Miller and J. Chiang, 2002: A simple model of tropical At- lantic decadal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Letters, 29, 10.1029/2002GLO15874.
  • Greene, A. M., Seager, R. and W. S. Broecker, 2002: Tropical snowline depression at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of coral and groundwater records. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmospheres, 10.1029/2001JD000670.
  • Seager, R., D. Battisti, J. Yin, N. Naik, N. Gordon, A. C. Clement and M. A. Cane, 2002: Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters?. Quart J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 128, 2563-2586.
  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, N. Naik, M. A. Cane and J. Miller 2001: Wind-driven shifts in the latitude of the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension and generation of SST anomalies on decadal timescales. J. Climate, 14, 4249-4265.
  • Clement, A. C., M. A. Cane and R. Seager, 2001: An orbitally forced tropical trigger for abrupt climate change. J. Climate, 14, 2369-2375.
  • Giannini, A., J. C, H. Chiang, M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir and R. Seager, 2001: The ENSO teleconnection to the tropical Atlantic Ocean: contributions of the remote and local SSTs to rainfall variability in the tropical Americas. J. Climate, bf 24, 4530-4544.
  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, P. Chang, N. Naik, J, Miller and W. Hazeleger, 2001: Looking for the role of the ocean in tropical Atlantic decadal climate variability. J. Climate, 14, 638-655.
  • Hazeleger, W., R. Seager, M. Visbeck, N. Naik and K. Rodgers, 2001: On the impact of the mid-latitude stormtrack on the upper Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 616-636.
  • Clement, A. C., R. Seager and M. A. Cane, 2000: Suppression of El Nin ̃o during the mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth’s orbit. Paleoceanogr., 15, 731-737.
  • Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, M. Visbeck, N. Naik, J, Miller, G, Krahmann and H. Cullen, 2000: Causes of Atlantic Ocean climate variability between 1958 and 1998. J. Climate, 13, 2845-2862.
  • Seager R., Clement, A. C. and M. A. Cane, 2000: Glacial cooling in the tropics: exploring the roles of tropospheric water vapor, surface wind speed and boundary layer processes. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2144-2157.
  • Clement, A. C., R. Seager and M. A. Cane, 1999: Orbital controls on ENSO and the tropical climate. Paleoceanogr., 14, 441-456.
  • Clement, A. C. and R. Seager, 1999: Climate and the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 12, 3383-3401.
  • Clement, A. C., M. A. Cane and R. Seager, 1998: Patterns and mechanisms of Twentieth Century climate change. World Resource Review, 10, 161-185.
  • Cane, M. A., A. C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, R. Murtugudde, D. Pozd- nyakov, R. Seager and S. E. Zebiak, 1997: Twentieth century sea surface tempera- ture trends. Science, 275, 957-960.

• T. Stockdale, A. J. Busalacchi, D. E. Harrison and R. Seager, 1998: Ocean modeling of ENSO. J Geophys. Res., 103, 14325-14355.

• R. Seager and R. Murtugudde, 1997: Ocean dynamics, thermocline adjustment and regulation of tropical SST. J. Climate, 10, 521-534.

• A. C. Clement, R. Seager, M. A. Cane and S. E. Zebiak, 1996: An ocean dynamical thermostat. J. Climate, 9, 2190-2196.

• R. Murtugudde, R. Seager and A. J. Busalacchi, 1996: Simulation of the tropi- cal oceans with an ocean GCM coupled to an atmospheric mixed layer model. J. Climate, 9, 1795-1815.

• R. Seager, Y. Kushnir and M. A. Cane, 1995: On heat flux boundary conditions for ocean models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 12, 3219-3230.

• R. Seager, M. B. Blumenthal and Y. Kushnir, 1995: An advective atmospheric mixed layer model for ocean modeling purposes: Global simulation of surface heat fluxes. J. Climate, 8, 1943-1957.

• Seager, R. and Zebiak, S. E., 1995: Simulation of tropical climate with a linear primitive equation model. J. Climate, 8, 2497-2520.

• Seager, R. and M. B. Blumenthal, 1994: Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface tem- perature with satellite derived solar radiative forcing. J. Climate, 7, 1943-1957.

• Seager, R. and Zebiak, S. E., 1994: Convective interaction with dynamics in a linear primitive equation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 1307-1331.

• Seager, R., 1991: A simple model of the climatology and variability of the low level wind field in the tropics. J. Climate, 4, 164-179.

• Seager, R., 1989: Modeling tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: 1970-1987. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 419-434.

• Seager, R., Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. A., 1988: A model of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 1265-1280.